What are prediction markets, in 60 seconds?
A prediction market sells Yes and No shares on a real question. A share pays $1 if its side is right and $0 if wrong, so its price reads as the market's chance. Buying Yes at $0.40 means paying 40 cents for a share that pays $1 if right: a x2.5 multiplier.
- Price is probability. $0.40 means the market thinks 40%.
- Multiplier is 1 divided by the price. $0.25 pays x4, $0.50 pays x2.
- You can sell before the end, at the current price.
- Every market has written rules saying what counts as Yes, when, and who decides.
- You can lose the full amount you put in.
People call them prediction markets, outcomes, event contracts, binary markets, or compare them to Polymarket and Kalshi. Full basics: what are prediction markets?.
Are predictions live in CopyHype?
Yes. Predictions on Hyperliquid's outcome markets (HIP-4) are live in CopyHype. Pick Yes or No from $10 a bet, sell any time before the result once the bet is worth $10 or more, or copy the best prediction traders. How it works: Predictions in CopyHype. The step by step beginner guide: Predictions 101.
Where should I start?
With the share itself, then the price, then how Hyperliquid runs it.
- What are prediction markets? How they work, explained simply.
- Prediction market odds explained: price is probability.
- What are outcome tokens? Yes and No, split and merge.
- Event contracts vs binary options vs sports betting.
How do Hyperliquid outcome markets work?
Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade runs outcome markets on its own onchain order book, settled in USDC, live on mainnet since May 2, 2026. Yes and No share one order book, and the minimum order is $10.
- Hyperliquid prediction markets (HIP-4 outcomes), explained simply.
- How to trade Hyperliquid outcomes, step by step.
- Crypto price predictions on Hyperliquid.
- Sports predictions on Hyperliquid: NFL, NBA, soccer and esports.
- Can you parlay on Hyperliquid? Combos on HIP-4, explained. Short answer: no.
How do Polymarket, Kalshi and Hyperliquid compare?
They sell the same kind of share but differ on who runs the order book, who decides results, fees and who can use them.
- HIP-4 vs Polymarket vs Kalshi: the facts, side by side.
- Prediction market fees compared: Hyperliquid, Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Are prediction markets legal? A neutral guide.
| Item | Hyperliquid HIP-4 | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Onchain order book | Crypto platform | US exchange regulated by the CFTC |
| Settles in | USDC | USDC | US dollars |
| Results decided by | An authorized oracle | UMA Optimistic Oracle | Kalshi, under its rules |
Can I copy prediction market traders?
On public platforms, yes, but late copies cost more than on perps, because prices jump on news and many books are thin.
How does a $10 prediction work?
You pay the price per share and get $1 per share if right. With Yes at $0.40:
| Item | Item |
|---|---|
| You put in | $10 |
| Shares | 25 |
| If Yes | $25 back, +$15 |
| If No | $0, -$10 |
| Sell early at $0.60 | $15 back, +$5 |
Fees vary by platform and are left out here. Hyperliquid's minimum is $10 per order.
Frequently asked questions
What is an outcome on Hyperliquid?
Hyperliquid's name for a prediction market contract, created by HIP-4. It settles to 0 or 1 in USDC.
Are prediction markets the same as betting?
The payout looks similar, but a prediction market is an exchange between traders where you can sell before the end. Some countries still regulate it as gambling.
Is there a Polymarket alternative on Hyperliquid?
Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome markets sell the same kind of Yes or No share, on Hyperliquid's own chain, settled in USDC. See HIP-4 vs Polymarket vs Kalshi.
Where can I bet on predictions in CopyHype?
They are live now. Open @copyhypefamilybot, tap Open the app, go to Trade, then 🔮 Predictions. To copy prediction traders, go to Whales, then 🔮 Predictions.
Can I lose money on prediction markets?
Yes. A share on the wrong side settles at $0, so you can lose the full amount you put in.
More in the docs
- CopyHype docsHow CopyHype copies the best Hyperliquid traders in Telegram: start in 3 taps, how copies open and close, Let it ride, max loss, wallets and fees.
- Perps for beginnersLearn perps from zero: perpetual futures, leverage, liquidation, margin, funding and fees, then trade or copy the best Hyperliquid traders.
- How whales are pickedHow CopyHype picks Hyperliquid whales: Hyperliquid's leaderboard, top 8 by profit or ROI over 24h, 7 and 30 days, among traders active in the last 24h.
- Wallets, deposits and withdrawalsYour CopyHype wallet is yours: set it up in Telegram, add money by card, USDT or USDC, move it into Hyperliquid, withdraw, export your key.
- Perps glossaryEvery perps and Hyperliquid term in one or two plain sentences: leverage, margin, liquidation, funding, mark price, HIP-3, HIP-4 outcomes and more.
- CopyHype feesEvery CopyHype fee with worked examples: 0.1% of the position each way, plus Hyperliquid's 0.045% or 0.09% on stocks, gold and indices.
- Predictions in CopyHypeBet Yes or No on sports, crypto prices, rates and news in CopyHype, on Hyperliquid's outcome markets. From $10 a bet, sell any time before the result.
- Predictions 101: prediction markets for beginnersPrediction markets from zero: Yes and No prices as chances, Hyperliquid HIP-4, a $10 example, selling early, fees, and copying the best prediction traders.
- Copy trading: the complete guideCopy trading from zero: how it works, who to copy, how much to start with, fees, risks and honest comparisons. Every guide in one place, in order.
- Hyperliquid: the complete guideHyperliquid from zero: deposits, fees, leverage, whales, meme coin perps, HIP-3 stocks and gold, HIP-4 outcomes, and trading it from Telegram.
- Telegram trading bots: the complete guideTelegram trading bots and Mini Apps explained: how they work, who holds the keys, copy trading bots, Hyperliquid bots, fees, scams and safety checks.
- Copy trading glossaryCopy trading, Telegram bot and prediction market words explained in one or two sentences: ROI, drawdown, copy ratio, API wallet, event contract and more.