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Hyperliquid prediction markets (HIP-4 outcomes), explained simply

Hyperliquid now lists Yes or No markets on sports, esports and crypto prices. Almost nobody explains them simply. Here is the whole thing in plain words, with the math on $10.

By CopyHype · Updated · 8 min read

Short answer

Hyperliquid prediction markets are HIP-4 outcome markets: fully collateralized Yes or No contracts that settle to 0 or 1, in USDC. The price of Yes is the market's chance, so Yes at $0.40 means about 40%. If you hold Yes and the event happens, each share pays $1. If it does not, each share pays $0 and you lose what you put in. HIP-4 went live on mainnet on May 2, 2026. The minimum is $10 per order, opening a position has no Hyperliquid fee, and in our check on October 18, 2026, Hyperliquid took about 0.07% when selling or at settlement.

Hyperliquid is best known for perps, the up or down bets with a multiplier. Since May 2026 it also runs prediction markets, which it calls outcome markets. They are a different game: no multiplier, no liquidation, just a question with a Yes and a No, and a price between 0 and 1. This guide explains the whole thing from zero, with dated facts and links to Hyperliquid's own docs.

What are Hyperliquid prediction markets in 30 seconds?

They are Yes or No contracts on real events, traded on Hyperliquid's order book, that pay $1 per share if you are right and $0 if you are wrong. The price you pay is the market's chance that the answer is Yes.

The 30-second version:

  • One question, two sides. "Will BTC be above a price at a set time?" You buy Yes or you buy No.
  • Price = chance. Yes at $0.40 means the market gives it about a 40% chance.
  • Pays $1 or $0. At the end, the right side pays $1 a share, the wrong side pays nothing.
  • No multiplier. What you put in is the most you can lose. There is no liquidation.
  • You can exit early. Sell before the end at the current price, with a profit or a loss.

Hyperliquid calls them outcome markets, and the upgrade that created them is HIP-4 (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4).

What does HIP-4 mean?

HIP-4 is Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 4, the upgrade that added outcome markets: "fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range." It was announced on February 2, 2026 and went live on mainnet on May 2, 2026.

Hyperliquid describes HIP-4 as a general building block, useful for prediction markets and for bounded, options-like products. The first market was a recurring Bitcoin contract that settles daily at 06:00 UTC to the BTC mark price (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4). The launch and announcement dates come from developer write-ups of the launch (>Dwellir, >Chainstack).

"Fully collateralized" is the key phrase. Every share that can pay $1 is backed by $1 locked when the trade happens. Nobody borrows, so nobody gets liquidated. Its sibling upgrade, HIP-3, did something different: it let outside teams launch their own perps.

How does a Yes or No price become a chance?

A Yes share pays $1 if the answer is Yes. So its price, in dollars, is the market's chance of Yes. Yes at $0.40 is a 40% chance; No on the same market costs about $0.60.

Think of it as cents on the dollar. If people think something happens 4 times out of 10, they will pay about 40 cents for a ticket that pays $1 when it happens. Prices on Hyperliquid outcome markets move between 0.001 and 0.999 (>Chainstack developer guide).

Yes price Market's chance of Yes No price You get back per $1 on Yes, if Yes wins
$0.10 10% $0.90 $10
$0.25 25% $0.75 $4
$0.50 50% $0.50 $2
$0.80 80% $0.20 $1.25

The cheaper the side, the bigger the payout and the less likely it is. A cheap side is not a bargain by default. It is cheap because the market thinks it probably will not happen. Our full guide to the math is prediction market odds explained.

How does a $10 prediction work, step by step?

$10 on Yes at $0.40 buys 25 Yes shares. If Yes wins, they pay $25, a $15 profit. You can also sell before the end.

Step What happens
The market "Will BTC be above the target at the deadline?" Yes costs $0.40
You put in $10 on Yes $10 divided by $0.40 = 25 Yes shares
Yes wins 25 shares x $1 = $25 back. Profit: $15
You sell early at $0.55 25 shares x $0.55 = $13.75 back. Profit: $3.75

We use $10 because it is Hyperliquid's minimum per order on outcome markets: the price times the number of shares must reach 10 USDC (>QuickNode guide). What you get back if you win is your amount divided by the price, so x2.5 at $0.40. Fees are left out here; they are small and covered below.

How does settlement work?

When the market ends, the right side settles to 1 and the wrong side settles to 0, automatically. There is nothing to claim: winning shares turn into dollars and losing shares disappear.

In Hyperliquid's terms, each market has two tokens, usually labelled Yes and No. Yes settles to a fraction called settleFraction, and No settles to 1 minus that fraction. For a simple Yes or No market the fraction is 1 or 0 (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4).

For price markets, the answer comes from Hyperliquid's own mark price. For the daily Bitcoin market, a developer guide explains that the result uses the two mark price updates on either side of the deadline, and that settlement happens with no claim or redeem step (>Chainstack developer guide). For sports or esports, the result is posted for the market after the game. Always read the market's own rules before you trade: which price, which time, which official result.

Why are Yes and No one order book?

Because buying Yes at a price p is the same as selling No at 1 minus p. Hyperliquid merges the two books so both sides share the same liquidity.

Hyperliquid's docs say it plainly: "The order books of Yes and No tokens for the same outcome are merged to share liquidity." A buy of Yes at $0.40 is the same trade as a sell of No at $0.60 (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4). For you, this means one price to read, and a tighter market than two thin books would give. The tokens themselves are explained in what are outcome tokens.

What is a question on Hyperliquid?

A question groups several outcomes where exactly one settles Yes and all the others settle No. "Who wins the match?" is a question; each possible winner is an outcome with its own Yes and No.

Each outcome in a question trades on its own book, and Hyperliquid links them so that holders of No on every outcome can turn them back into dollars before settlement (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4). The Yes prices of all outcomes in a question should add up to about $1, since exactly one of them will pay.

What can you predict on Hyperliquid today?

At the time of writing, sports, esports and crypto prices. On October 18, 2026, Hyperliquid's public list of outcome markets showed about 365 outcomes.

They covered the NFL, the NBA, soccer (for example Ligue 1), League of Legends esports, and crypto and index price markets. The price markets ask whether a coin will be above a target, or touch it, by a deadline that is usually hours or days away. The list changes every day as markets settle and new ones open, so treat this as a snapshot.

More detail: sports predictions on Hyperliquid and crypto price predictions explained.

What does it cost to trade outcomes?

Opening a position has no Hyperliquid fee. In our check of fills on October 18, 2026, Hyperliquid took about 0.07% when a position was sold or settled. At launch, Hyperliquid's docs said fees were zero for initial testing, so check the fee shown before you trade.

Markets are quoted and settled in USDC. Hyperliquid moved outcome collateral from USDH, its own stablecoin at launch, to USDC, so no swap is needed (>QuickNode guide, >Unchained). Apps can also add their own fee through builder codes, which work for outcomes as they do in spot trading, where the cap is 1% (>Hyperliquid docs, builder codes). How this compares with Polymarket and Kalshi: prediction market fees compared.

What are the risks?

You can lose the amount you put in. If your side settles at 0, the whole stake is gone. The other risks are quieter but real.

  • Prices are not promises. A 90% favourite still loses 1 time in 10.
  • Close calls are close to a coin flip. Near the deadline, with the price near the target, it can land on either side.
  • Thin books. On a small market, your order can move the price, and selling early can cost you.
  • Rules matter. Which price, which time, which official result decides the market. Read them.
  • Information edges. In sports, some traders know about injuries or line-ups before you do.
  • Legal status varies. Prediction markets are treated differently from country to country. See are prediction markets legal.

How is this different from perps?

Perps have a multiplier and can be liquidated. Outcomes have no multiplier, a fixed end, and a payout of exactly $1 or $0 a share. Your worst case on an outcome is known the moment you buy.

Item Perps Outcome markets
What you bet on A coin goes up or down A Yes or No question
Multiplier Yes, up to the coin's maximum No
Can be liquidated Yes No, fully collateralized
Ends When you close At a set time, or when you sell
Most you can lose Your amount Your amount

New to perps? Read what are perpetual futures.

Are predictions in CopyHype?

Yes. Predictions are live in CopyHype. Practice money or real money, single bets only, from $10 a bet in both.

Each market shows the question, the chance, what it pays (pays ×2.5 at a 40% chance) and the time left, and the bet sheet shows what you get back if you win, all before you tap. CopyHype's fee: 1% when you buy, 1% when you sell before the result, and nothing from CopyHype at the result. On $10, you pay $10.10. Hyperliquid's own fee, about 0.07%, applies when you sell or get paid. Details: Predictions in CopyHype.

Frequently asked questions

Are Hyperliquid prediction markets the same as HIP-4?

Yes. HIP-4 is the upgrade that created outcome markets on Hyperliquid, and outcome markets are Hyperliquid's name for prediction markets.

Can I lose more than I put in on a Hyperliquid outcome?

No. Outcomes are fully collateralized and have no multiplier. If your side settles at 0, you lose the amount you put in, and nothing more.

What does Yes at $0.40 mean?

The market gives Yes about a 40% chance. Each Yes share costs $0.40 and pays $1 if Yes wins, or $0 if it loses.

When did Hyperliquid outcome markets launch?

HIP-4 was announced on February 2, 2026 and went live on mainnet on May 2, 2026, starting with a daily Bitcoin market.

Are Hyperliquid outcome markets free?

Not quite. Opening a position has no Hyperliquid fee, and in our check on October 18, 2026, Hyperliquid took about 0.07% when selling or at settlement. Apps can add a builder fee, and fees can change, so check before you trade.

Can I trade predictions in CopyHype?

Yes. Open the bot, tap Open the app, go to Trade, then 🔮 Predictions: practice money or real money.

Where do these facts come from?

From Hyperliquid's official docs, developer guides written at launch, and our own check of Hyperliquid's public market list on October 18, 2026. Sources:

Market counts and categories change daily. Words like outcome, question and settlement are defined in the glossary.