Short answer
All three sell Yes or No shares that pay $1 if right. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 runs them on its own on-chain order book in USDC, live since May 2, 2026: free to open and, in our check on October 18, 2026, about 0.07% when you sell or settle. Polymarket matches orders off-chain and settles on Polygon, with a taker fee on some categories and none for makers. Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market, with a fee formula published in its fee schedule. Who can use each depends on where you live.
Prediction markets used to mean one or two names. In 2026 there are three big models side by side: a crypto exchange's native order book (Hyperliquid), a crypto-native platform (Polymarket) and a regulated US exchange (Kalshi). This page compares them on facts only, with the date and the source of each one. It is not a ranking, and it is not advice on which to use.
What is the short difference between HIP-4, Polymarket and Kalshi?
HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's own on-chain order book for outcomes. Polymarket is a crypto platform with off-chain matching and on-chain settlement. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange. All three sell shares that pay $1 when right and $0 when wrong.
The share works the same everywhere: the price is the market's chance, and the payout is fixed. What changes is who runs the order book, who decides the result, what it costs and who is allowed in. Our explainer on Hyperliquid prediction markets covers the share itself from zero.
How do the three compare side by side?
Here is the summary, as of October 18, 2026. Every line is sourced below the table and in the source list at the end.
| Item | Hyperliquid HIP-4 | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| What it is | Outcome markets on Hyperliquid's own chain | Crypto prediction platform | US exchange for event contracts |
| Order book | On-chain, on HyperCore | Matched off-chain, settled on Polygon | Run by Kalshi |
| Regulated as | Not stated in its docs | International platform not US-regulated | Designated Contract Market, CFTC |
| Results decided by | An authorized oracle posts 0 or 1 | UMA Optimistic Oracle | Kalshi, under its market rules |
| Taker fee | Nothing to open, about 0.07% to sell or settle | Some categories, formula below | Formula in its fee schedule |
| Maker fee | No maker rebates | Never charged | Lower formula, below |
| Started | Mainnet on May 2, 2026 | Founded in 2020 |
Sources for the table: Hyperliquid's HIP-4 docs, Polymarket's fee docs, Kalshi's help center and fee schedule, and a May 2026 comparison by Chainstack (>Chainstack).
How does trading work on each?
All three use an order book: buyers and sellers post prices, and trades happen where they meet. The difference is where that book lives.
- Hyperliquid HIP-4. The order book is part of HyperCore, the same engine that runs Hyperliquid's perps and spot. Yes and No books for the same outcome are merged, so buying Yes at p is selling No at 1 minus p (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4).
- Polymarket. Chainstack describes its order book as matched off-chain by Polymarket, with settlement and token transfers on-chain on Polygon (>Chainstack).
- Kalshi. Kalshi runs its own exchange and says it "is regulated as a Designated Contract Market (DCM)" by the CFTC, a US government agency (>Kalshi help center).
How are results decided?
On HIP-4, an authorized oracle posts the result, and price markets use Hyperliquid's own mark price. Polymarket uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle. Kalshi settles under its own rules. Always read who decides before you trade.
For Hyperliquid's daily Bitcoin market, the result comes from HyperCore's BTC mark price (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4). Dwellir's launch write-up describes an authorized oracle posting the binary result, with an optional dispute window (>Dwellir). Chainstack reports that every Polymarket event resolves through the UMA Optimistic Oracle, with Chainlink data used for fast crypto markets (>Chainstack).
What do the fees look like?
HIP-4 is free to open and, in our check on October 18, 2026, took about 0.07% when selling or settling. Polymarket and Kalshi both use a formula that charges most around a 50% price. On 100 shares at $0.50, that is $0 to buy on HIP-4, $1.25 on a Polymarket sports market and $1.75 for a Kalshi taker.
| 100 shares at $0.50 | Fee |
|---|---|
| Hyperliquid HIP-4, today | $0 to buy, about $0.04 to sell at $0.50 |
| Polymarket, sports, taker | $1.25 |
| Polymarket, crypto, taker | $1.75 |
| Polymarket, any maker | $0 |
| Kalshi, general taker formula | $1.75 |
| Kalshi, general maker formula | About $0.44 |
Polymarket's formula is C x feeRate x p x (1 - p), with feeRate 0.07 for crypto, 0.05 for sports, 0.04 for finance, politics and tech, and 0 for geopolitics (>Polymarket docs, fees). Kalshi's general taker fee is 0.07 x C x P x (1 - P), rounded up, and its maker fee uses 0.0175, in a schedule effective July 7, 2026 (>Kalshi fee schedule). The full breakdown, including Hyperliquid's builder fees, is in prediction market fees compared.
What can you trade on each?
At the time of writing, HIP-4 lists sports, esports and crypto price markets. Polymarket covers politics, sports, geopolitics, macro and pop culture. Kalshi lists event contracts under its rules.
On October 18, 2026, Hyperliquid's public market list showed about 365 outcomes: the NFL, the NBA, soccer such as Ligue 1, League of Legends esports, and crypto and index prices, with deadlines from hours to months away. Polymarket's categories come from Chainstack's May 2026 comparison (>Chainstack). The menu on each platform changes constantly.
Who can use each one?
It depends on where you live, and the rules change. Chainstack's May 2026 comparison said US traders are geo-blocked from HIP-4 and from Polymarket's international platform. Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange.
In France, the gaming regulator ANJ banned financial transactions with Polymarket in November 2024 and announced a block of its website on July 17, 2026 (>eNCA, AFP). Other countries treat prediction markets as gambling, as financial products, or not at all. We cover this, without legal advice, in are prediction markets legal.
Why does HIP-4 matter, and how does Kalshi fit in?
HIP-4 puts prediction markets on the same engine and the same account as Hyperliquid's perps and spot. BlockEden also reported a Hyperliquid and Kalshi partnership announced in March 2026, and that HIP-4 was co-authored by Kalshi's head of crypto.
That report comes from a May 2026 BlockEden article (>BlockEden). For traders, the practical point is simpler: on Hyperliquid, an outcome trade sits next to your perps in one place. Permissionless deployment, where outside teams could launch their own outcome markets by staking 500,000 HYPE, was announced on July 20, 2026 as preliminary, with no dates (>The Block).
Which one should a beginner pick?
The one that is legal where you live, that lists the market you care about, and whose rules you have read. After that, compare fees on your actual trade size.
We build CopyHype on Hyperliquid, so we are not neutral on the platform we chose. That is why this page sticks to sourced facts. Predictions are live in CopyHype, with practice money first, so you can learn how these markets move without real money. You can lose the amount you put in.
Frequently asked questions
Is HIP-4 cheaper than Polymarket?
Today, yes on fees: opening a HIP-4 position is free and Hyperliquid took about 0.07% when selling or settling in our October 18, 2026 check, while Polymarket charges takers a fee on some categories. That can change, so check both.
Is Hyperliquid regulated like Kalshi?
Kalshi says it is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 docs do not describe it as a regulated exchange.
Does Polymarket charge makers?
No. Polymarket's fee docs say makers are never charged fees. Only takers pay, and only on some categories.
Which has more markets?
It changes daily. At the time of writing, HIP-4 listed about 365 outcomes across sports, esports and crypto prices. Polymarket covers more categories, including politics.
Can I use all three from any country?
No. Access depends on where you live. For example, US traders are geo-blocked from HIP-4 and from Polymarket's international platform, according to Chainstack, and France blocks Polymarket.
Where do these facts come from?
From each platform's own docs, plus dated reports for the facts the docs do not cover. Sources:
- >Hyperliquid docs: HIP-4 outcome markets
- >Polymarket docs: fees
- >Kalshi help center: how is Kalshi regulated
- >Kalshi fee schedule
- >Chainstack: HIP-4 vs Polymarket
- >Dwellir: HIP-4 on mainnet
- >BlockEden: HIP-4 goes live, May 8, 2026
- >The Block: HIP-4 permissionless deployment, July 20, 2026
- >eNCA, AFP: France blocks access to Polymarket
Fees and access were checked on October 18, 2026. Kalshi's maker figure is rounded.
Keep reading
- Hyperliquid prediction markets (HIP-4 outcomes), explained simplyHow Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcome markets work: Yes and No prices as chances, a worked $10 example, USDC settlement, fees and what is listed.
- Prediction market fees compared: Hyperliquid, Polymarket and KalshiWhat prediction markets really cost, dated October 2026: Hyperliquid HIP-4 and builder fees, Polymarket's taker formula, Kalshi, worked examples.
- Are prediction markets legal? A neutral guide to how the rules varyAre prediction markets legal where you live? How regulators treat them, dated US and France examples, platform terms, taxes and how to check.