Short answer
An event contract (the share sold on prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket or Hyperliquid's outcome markets) pays a fixed $1 if an event happens, trades on an exchange between traders, and can be sold before the result. A binary option pays a fixed amount if a price ends above or below a level, and retail versions are often sold by a broker that takes the other side. A sports bet is placed with a bookmaker that sets the odds and keeps a margin. You can lose the full amount in all three.
"Binary options style", "like Polymarket", "like Kalshi", "event trading", "sports betting with crypto": people describe the same idea many ways. Behind the words are three different setups. The difference that matters most is who is on the other side of your trade, because that decides who profits when you lose.
Predictions are live in CopyHype; this page explains the topic. Part of our prediction markets guide.
What is an event contract?
An event contract is a share that pays a fixed amount, usually $1, if a stated event happens, and nothing if it does not. It trades on an exchange, between traders.
The term is common in the United States, where the CFTC regulates event contracts listed on designated exchanges such as Kalshi. Polymarket shares and Hyperliquid's outcomes (HIP-4) are the same kind of contract. The price, between $0 and $1, reads as the market's chance. Full basics: what are prediction markets?.
What is a binary option?
A binary option pays a fixed amount if a price is above (or below) a level at a set time, and nothing otherwise. The classic example: "EUR/USD above 1.10 at 15:00?"
Binary options exist on regulated exchanges too, but the retail versions sold online for years were often run by brokers that took the other side of every trade. Several regulators restricted or banned their sale to retail clients. ESMA, the EU markets authority, prohibited marketing binary options to retail investors in 2018, and that measure was then made permanent by national regulators.
The payout structure resembles a crypto price prediction ("BTC above $100,000 on Friday?"). The setup is what differs.
What is a sports bet?
A sports bet is a wager placed with a bookmaker, who sets the odds, takes the other side and builds a margin into the prices. You usually cannot sell the bet back at a market price, though some books offer a cash-out.
Bookmaker odds add up to more than 100% across all outcomes. That extra share, often a few percent, is the bookmaker's margin. On an exchange, prices from many traders tend to sum close to 100%, and the platform earns a fee instead.
How do the three compare side by side?
The key differences are who you trade against, who sets the price, and whether you can exit early at a market price.
| Item | Event contract (prediction market) | Retail binary option | Sports bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other side of your trade | Other traders | Often the broker | The bookmaker |
| Who sets the price | Buyers and sellers | The broker | The bookmaker |
| Platform earns from | Fees | Your losses, often | Margin in the odds |
| Exit before the result | Yes, sell at market | Sometimes | Sometimes, via cash-out |
| Price reads as | A probability | A payout ratio | Odds with margin |
| Topics | Any stated event | Mostly prices | Sports |
Why does "who is on the other side" matter?
Because when the platform itself is your counterparty, your loss is its profit, and it controls the price. On an exchange, the platform earns the same fee whoever wins.
Picture the same yes or no question priced in two places:
- Exchange: Yes at $0.50, No at $0.50. You buy 20 Yes for $10. If right, 20 x $1 = $20. The exchange took a small fee.
- Bookmaker: both sides at decimal odds of 1.91. You bet $10. If right, $19.10. The 4.5% gap between $20 and $19.10 is the bookmaker's margin, on every bet.
On a single bet, the gap is under a dollar. Over hundreds of bets, it is the difference between a fair game and a slowly losing one.
How does a crypto price prediction compare with a perp?
A price prediction pays a fixed amount on a yes or no question; a perp pays in proportion to how far the price moves. Both can lose your full amount.
Example on Bitcoin at $100,000, $10 in:
| Item | BTC ends at $101,000 | BTC ends at $99,000 |
|---|---|---|
| "BTC above $100,000?" Yes at $0.50 | 20 shares pay $20: +$10 | $0: -$10 |
| Perp long x5 ($50 position) | +$0.50 | -$0.50 |
The prediction is all or nothing around one line. The perp is gradual. More: crypto price predictions on Hyperliquid.
How do you convert odds between the three?
Turn everything into an implied chance: a share price is already one, decimal odds become 1 divided by the odds, and a binary option payout ratio becomes stake divided by total return.
| Format | Example | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Prediction market price | Yes at $0.40 | 40% |
| Decimal odds (sportsbook) | 2.50 | 1 / 2.50 = 40% |
| American odds | +150 | 100 / 250 = 40% |
| Binary option paying 80% on a win | Stake $10, return $18 | 10 / 18 = 55.6% |
The binary option line shows the catch: a payout of 80% means you need to be right more than 55.6% of the time just to break even. A prediction share at $0.50 pays about x2 before fees, so the break-even is about 50% plus fees. Converting to chances is the fastest way to compare a "great payout" across platforms. More: prediction market odds explained.
Are event contracts legal?
It depends on the country and the platform. Kalshi is regulated in the United States by the CFTC as a designated contract market. Other countries treat prediction markets as gambling, as financial products, or block them.
France, for example, has blocked access to Polymarket. Our neutral overview, without legal advice: are prediction markets legal?.
What are the risks of each?
In all three you can lose the full amount. The extra risks differ.
- Event contracts: thin markets with wide prices, and rules you must read carefully.
- Retail binary options: a broker on the other side and, in many places, an unregulated seller.
- Sports bets: the bookmaker's margin on every bet, and limits on winning accounts at some books.
Does CopyHype offer event contracts?
Yes, predictions on Hyperliquid's outcome markets (HIP-4) are live in CopyHype. They are single Yes or No picks, with the chance and the payout shown before you bet. The minimum is $10 a bet.
CopyHype also offers Hyperliquid perps: copy the best active traders or trade solo, with $1,000 of free practice money for 24 hours.
Frequently asked questions
Is a prediction market the same as binary options?
The payout shape is similar: a fixed amount or nothing. The difference is the setup. Prediction markets are exchanges between traders; many retail binary options were sold by brokers who took the other side.
Are event contracts gambling?
Some regulators treat them as financial contracts, others as gambling. The answer depends on where you live.
Can I sell an event contract before the result?
Yes, on exchange-based prediction markets you can sell at the current price any time before the market closes.
Why are bookmaker odds worse?
Because the bookmaker builds a margin into the odds. Across all outcomes, the implied chances add up to more than 100%.
What does "Kalshi-like" mean?
An app that sells event contracts on real-world outcomes, like Kalshi does. Hyperliquid's outcome markets are another example.
What is the break-even chance on a prediction share?
Roughly its price, plus fees. Buying Yes at $0.40 breaks even if Yes wins a bit more than 40% of the time, once the platform's fees are counted.
Keep reading
- What are prediction markets? How they work, explained simplyPrediction markets let you buy Yes or No shares on real events that pay $1 if right. How prices become chances, payouts, fees and risks, with $10 examples.
- Prediction market odds explained: price is probability, and the payout mathWhy a prediction market price is a probability, how to turn it into a payout, decimal and American odds, the overround and expected value.
- Sports predictions on Hyperliquid: NFL, NBA, soccer and esportsHow sports outcome markets work on Hyperliquid: a match as a question, prices as chances, draws, settlement, in-game trading and the traps.