Predictions 101: prediction markets for beginners

What is a prediction market, in 60 seconds?

A prediction market turns a real question into Yes and No shares. A share pays $1 if its side is right and $0 if it is wrong, so its price is the market's chance. Yes at $0.40 means the market gives Yes a 40% chance, and each dollar you put on it becomes $2.50 if Yes wins.

• One question, two sides. Will BTC be above a price tomorrow morning? Will this team win tonight? You pick Yes or No.
• Price is probability. A share at $0.40 is a 40% chance in the eyes of the market.
• The multiplier is 1 divided by the price. At $0.40, x2.5. At $0.80, x1.25.
• The price moves until the result. You can sell before the end, at the live price.
• No multiplier on your money, no liquidation. A bet costs what you paid for it, nothing more.

How does the price become a chance?

Because a share pays exactly $1 when its side is right, its price in cents reads as a percentage. Buyers and sellers set it. When more people think Yes, Yes gets more expensive.

Payouts are before fees. A cheap side pays more because the market thinks it is less likely. A favourite pays less and still loses some of the time: an 80% side loses about 1 time in 5. More on reading prices: prediction market odds explained.

What are Hyperliquid outcome markets (HIP-4)?

They are Hyperliquid's own prediction markets, called outcome markets, added by its HIP-4 upgrade and live on mainnet since May 2, 2026. Each outcome is a fully backed Yes or No share that settles at $1 or $0 in USDC (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4).

Yes and No share one order book: buying Yes at $0.40 is the same trade as selling No at $0.60. A question can group several outcomes where exactly one ends Yes, like the winner of a match. When the result is known, the market settles and winning shares are paid automatically. The full explainer: Hyperliquid prediction markets, explained simply.

How does a $10 prediction work?

Here is one bet from start to finish: $10 on Yes at $0.40, in CopyHype.

The numbers are an example of the format, not a live market. Every bet shows what it pays if it wins before you bet.

Can I sell before the result?

Yes, any time before the result, at the live price. Your open bet shows what you get now, with a Cash out button and a Cash out half button.

Hyperliquid only accepts a sale worth $10 or more. A $10 bet is worth a little less than $10 right after you buy it, so it can be sold early once its chance has gone up. Keep it and it pays at the result. A bet of $20 or more leaves more room to sell early.

How do I place my first prediction?

Five taps, starting with free practice money.

1. Open the bot. Open >@copyhypefamilybot in Telegram and tap Open the app.
2. Go to Predictions. Open the Trade tab, then 🔮 Predictions. Pick a market: sports, crypto, politics and more. Each one shows the chance and what it pays, like pays ×2.5.
3. Pick a side. Tap Yes or No. You see the chance and the time left before the result.
4. Set your bet. From $10. The sheet shows what you get if you are right. Our 1% fee comes on top: $10.10 for a $10 bet.
5. Hold to bet. Start in practice money on live prices, then use real money from your own wallet when you are ready.

Practice uses the same $10 minimum and the same trading fees as real money, so the results match. Real money bets come from the same wallet you use for perps, and only you can withdraw from it. More in Predictions in CopyHype.

How does copying a prediction trader work?

CopyHype ranks the best prediction traders on Hyperliquid by profit or ROI, from their public Hyperliquid bets. Tap Copy and their next bets become yours, at your amount, from $10.

• Pick a trader. The list shows traders active in the last 24 hours, with their profit after fees from sales and settlements over 24 hours, 7 days or 30 days, and their ROI: that profit divided by what they spent buying.
• Set your amount per bet. From $10. You can pause the copy at any time.
• Or join one bet. Open a bet they hold and tap Join, without copying everything.

A trader who won last month can lose next month. Read can you copy trade prediction markets before you copy.

What does it cost?

CopyHype takes 1% when you buy, 1% if you sell before the result, and nothing at the result. The minimum is $10 a bet.

On $10, that is $0.10 when you buy. Hyperliquid takes nothing to open and about 0.07% when you sell or when the market settles. A friend's link takes 10% off our fee. Practice money is free and carries the same trading fees, so practice results match real ones. Compare platforms: prediction market fees compared.

Which mistakes do beginners make?

Most come from reading the price as a sure thing, or skipping the rules.

• Treating 90% as certain. A 90% side still loses about 1 time in 10.
• Not reading the rules. Each market says what counts as Yes, when, and from which source.
• Betting on the cheapest side for the multiplier. A x5 side is cheap because it usually loses.
• Chasing a loss. Each market is a new question. The last result does not change the next one.
• Expecting combos. CopyHype has no parlays: each prediction stands on its own.

Where do I go next?

Pick the guide that matches your next question.

• Prediction markets: the complete guide, from shares to Polymarket and Kalshi.
• What are outcome tokens? Yes and No shares, split and merge.
• Hyperliquid sports predictions and crypto price predictions explained.
• Are prediction markets legal? Rules differ from country to country.
• The glossary for every term on this page.

Frequently asked questions

What is the minimum bet on a prediction?

$10 a bet, in practice money and in real money. It is Hyperliquid's minimum per order.

Is a prediction market the same as a bookmaker?

No. You buy and sell shares with other people at a price the market sets, not against a house that sets the odds. The price moves as people trade.

Is there leverage on predictions?

No. There is no multiplier and no liquidation. A bet costs what you paid for it.

How is a winning prediction paid?

When the market settles, each winning share pays $1, automatically, into your balance. Losing shares pay $0.

What fees does CopyHype charge on predictions?

1% when you buy, 1% if you sell before the result, nothing at the result. Hyperliquid takes about 0.07% when you sell or at settlement.

Can I practice predictions for free?

Yes. Practice money works on live Hyperliquid prices, with the same $10 minimum and the same trading fees as real money.