Short answer
Hyperliquid's crypto price markets ask a Yes or No question, like "will ZEC be above $1,057 at 08:00 UTC on October 23?" Yes pays $1 a share if the rule is met at the deadline and $0 if not. The rule names the price source and a short window, for example the Pyth price over the last 90 seconds before the deadline. That window is how the result is measured, not how long the market lasts. You can lose the amount you put in.
Crypto price markets are the simplest predictions to read: a coin, a target and a deadline. The details still matter. Which price decides, at what moment, and over how many seconds? This guide explains how Hyperliquid's crypto markets are written, how the result is decided, and where the costs hide.
What is a crypto price prediction on Hyperliquid?
It is a Yes or No outcome market on a coin's price at a deadline: will it be above a target, or will it touch a target before the deadline? Yes pays $1 a share if the rule is met, No pays $1 if it is not.
On October 18, 2026, our check of Hyperliquid's public list of outcome markets counted 110 markets of the "price above a target" kind, 12 "touch" markets and 4 daily recurring markets, next to sports and other events. Hyperliquid's very first outcome market, at the May 2026 launch, was a daily Bitcoin market that settles at 06:00 UTC (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4). The basics of outcomes are in Hyperliquid prediction markets explained.
How does a "price above X" market work?
The market sets a coin, a target price, a deadline and a price source. You buy Yes if you think the price will be above the target at the deadline, or No if you think it will not. At the deadline, one side pays $1 a share and the other pays $0.
Each market carries its rule in short fields. One we read on October 18 said: the coin ZEC, the source "the Pyth ZEC/USD price", a window of 90 seconds, a target of 1,057 and a deadline of 08:00 UTC on October 23. In plain words: Yes if ZEC is above $1,057 at 08:00 UTC on October 23, measured on the Pyth price over the last 90 seconds. The daily recurring markets use the same idea with a fixed daily deadline (>Chainstack developer guide).
What does the seconds field mean?
It is the measuring window, not the length of the market. A market with a 90-second window can run for days: the 90 seconds are the last moments before the deadline, the ones that decide the result.
Measuring over a short window instead of one single tick makes the result harder to push with one trade at the last second. It also means a market is not "90 seconds long". When an app shows such a market, the useful numbers are the deadline and the time left, for example "Result in 4d 21h". Check each market's rule: the window and the source are written in it.
What is a "touch" market?
A touch market asks whether the price reaches a target at any moment before the deadline, and stays there for a few seconds. One we read on October 18: HYPE, a target of $75, the HYPE-USDC perp mark as the source, a hold of 3 seconds, and a deadline on November 1.
Touch markets read differently from "above at the deadline". The price can touch the target on day one and fall back, and Yes still wins. So a touch market usually trades at a higher chance than an "above at the deadline" market with the same target. The few seconds of hold mean a single spike of one tick does not count.
How is the result decided?
On the price source named in the rule, not on another exchange's chart. For a daily Bitcoin market, the developer guide explains that the result uses Hyperliquid's mark price around the deadline.
In detail, the guide says a daily price market settles Yes "if and only if" the price, interpolated between the mark price just before and just after the deadline, meets the target, and that it does not use candles or other snapshots (>Chainstack developer guide). Newer markets name their own source, like a Pyth price. Two practical points follow. Read the rule of each market. And the chart in your usual app may show a slightly different price from the one that decides the market.
What does a $10 pick look like?
At $0.50, $10 buys 20 Yes shares: $20 back if right. Over many picks, small costs decide the result.
| Situation | What happens to $10 on Yes |
|---|---|
| You buy at $0.50 | 20 shares |
| Yes wins at the deadline | 20 x $1 = $20 back, profit $10 |
| You buy at $0.52 because the best offer is 2 cents above fair | 20 shares cost $10.40 |
| Fair chance is still 50% | Average value $10, so about $0.40 lost per pick on average |
That last line is the important one. A 2-cent spread does not look like much on one pick. Repeated 50 times, it adds up to about $20 lost on average, from costs alone, on $10 picks. We use $10 because a developer guide lists $10 of value as the minimum per order (>Chainstack developer guide), and shares are whole, so the cost is rounded to the next share.
How far away is the deadline?
Usually hours or days, sometimes weeks. A deadline far away leaves room for news and trends, so prices can move far from 50%.
A market on "BTC above a target by a date" can trade at $0.15 or $0.85, because a lot can happen before the deadline. You can have a real view on it, right or wrong. When the deadline gets close and the price sits near the target, the market gets close to a coin flip again: in the last minutes, small moves decide. Neither case is safe, but it helps to know which one you are in.
How is this different from a perps trade on the same coin?
A perp has no end and a multiplier, and can be liquidated. A price outcome has a fixed deadline, no multiplier, and pays exactly $1 or $0 a share. The worst case on the outcome is known before you start.
| Item | BTC perp, up | BTC above X at a deadline, Yes |
|---|---|---|
| Ends | When you close | At the deadline |
| Multiplier | Yes | No |
| Small move in your favour | Small gain | Full $1 a share at the deadline |
| Small move against you | Small loss | $0 a share at the deadline |
| Most you can lose | Your amount | Your amount |
The outcome turns a small move at the deadline into all or nothing. A perp turns the same move into a small gain or loss. Perps from zero: what are perpetual futures.
What are the risks?
You can lose the amount you put in. Price markets look simple, and that makes them easy to repeat.
- Close calls near the deadline. When the price sits near the target, the result is close to a coin flip.
- Costs decide the long run. Spreads and fees take a little on every pick.
- Faster players. Bots react to price feeds in milliseconds.
- Thin books. On October 18 we saw a ZEC market with a best bid of $0.0157 and a best offer of $0.9899: buying there would cost far more than the fair price.
- The loop. New markets open every day. Set a limit before you start.
Does CopyHype have crypto predictions?
Yes, crypto predictions are live in CopyHype. Practice first, with $1,000 of free practice money for 24 hours. Bets start at $10, with the same minimum and the same trading fees as real money.
CopyHype shows each market with the time left, the chance and what it pays, and the bet sheet shows what you get back if you win, before you tap. CopyHype's fee: 1% when you buy, 1% if you sell before the result, and nothing when you hold to the result. On $10, that is $0.10 when you buy. Hyperliquid adds about 0.07% when you sell or get paid. Markets where $10 cannot be bought near a fair price are not shown. How it works: Predictions in CopyHype.
Frequently asked questions
Is a 90-second market 90 seconds long?
No. The 90 seconds are the window used to measure the price just before the deadline. The market itself can run for days, and the deadline is what to watch.
Which price decides a Hyperliquid price market?
The source named in the market's rule: Hyperliquid's mark price for the daily Bitcoin market, or another named price, like a Pyth price, for newer markets.
What is the difference between "above" and "touch"?
"Above" looks at the price at the deadline. "Touch" wins if the price reaches the target and holds for a few seconds at any time before the deadline.
Can I predict Bitcoin's price?
Nobody can do it reliably. Far from the deadline, you can have a view. Close to it, with the price near the target, it gets close to a coin flip.
Why do I lose money on a 50/50 market over time?
Because you usually buy slightly above the fair price, through the spread and any fees. On a fair coin flip, those small costs add up.
Where do these facts come from?
From Hyperliquid's HIP-4 docs, a developer guide, and our check of Hyperliquid's public market list and books on October 18, 2026. Sources:
The $10 example uses round numbers and leaves out fees. Hyperliquid's docs say outcome fees are currently zero for initial testing; in our check of fills on October 18, settlement carried a protocol fee of about 0.07%.
Keep reading
- Hyperliquid prediction markets (HIP-4 outcomes), explained simplyHow Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcome markets work: Yes and No prices as chances, a worked $10 example, USDC settlement, fees and what is listed.
- Prediction market odds explained: price is probability, and the payout mathWhy a prediction market price is a probability, how to turn it into a payout, decimal and American odds, the overround and expected value.
- Prediction market fees compared: Hyperliquid, Polymarket and KalshiWhat prediction markets really cost, dated October 2026: Hyperliquid HIP-4 and builder fees, Polymarket's taker formula, Kalshi, worked examples.