Short answer
Outcome tokens are the two sides of a prediction market. On Hyperliquid's HIP-4 markets, each outcome has a Yes token and a No token. At settlement, the right one pays 1 dollar of stablecoin per token and the wrong one pays 0. Because exactly one of them pays, 1 Yes plus 1 No is always worth $1, so their prices add up to about $1. Splitting turns $1 into 1 Yes and 1 No; merging turns them back into $1.
When you buy Yes on a prediction market, you are not placing a bet slip. You are buying a token that will be worth $1 or $0. Once you see the two tokens and how they fit together, the prices, the order book and the payout all follow. This guide explains outcome tokens on Hyperliquid, from the simplest idea to the technical names.
What is an outcome token?
An outcome token is a share in one side of a question. It is worth $1 at the end if that side is right, and $0 if it is wrong. In between, it trades at a price that reflects the chance.
Hyperliquid's HIP-4 docs describe outcome markets as "fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range", and say each market has two tokens, labelled by its side specs, often Yes and No (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4). Fully collateralized means each pair of tokens is backed by $1 locked in the system, so the payout is always there.
What are Yes and No tokens?
The Yes token pays if the event happens. The No token pays if it does not. They are mirror images: when one is worth more, the other is worth less.
| Item | Yes token | No token |
|---|---|---|
| Pays $1 when | The answer is Yes | The answer is No |
| Pays $0 when | The answer is No | The answer is Yes |
| Example price | $0.40 | $0.60 |
| Market's chance it pays | About 40% | About 60% |
In Hyperliquid's terms, Yes settles to a value called settleFraction and No settles to 1 minus it. For a simple Yes or No market, that value is 1 or 0 (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4).
Where do Yes and No tokens come from?
They are created in pairs. When a buyer of Yes and a buyer of No meet at prices that add up to $1, their money is locked and one Yes and one No are minted. When the pair is sold back, it is burned.
Say Ana buys Yes at $0.40 and Ben buys No at $0.60. Together they put in $1. The system locks that $1 and creates one Yes for Ana and one No for Ben. At the end, one of them gets the $1. A developer guide explains that on Hyperliquid this minting and burning happens inside the matching engine during fills, so you never press a mint button yourself (>Chainstack developer guide).
Why does 1 Yes plus 1 No always equal $1?
Because exactly one of them will pay $1 and the other $0. Holding both is the same as holding $1, whatever happens.
That simple fact keeps prices honest. If Yes costs $0.40 and No costs $0.50, someone can buy both for $0.90 and collect $1 for sure, so they buy until the gap closes. If they cost $0.55 and $0.55, someone can sell both for $1.10 and owe only $1. In practice, the best Yes and No prices add up to a little more than $1 for buyers, and the difference is the spread.
It is also why Hyperliquid merges the two order books: "The order books of Yes and No tokens for the same outcome are merged to share liquidity." Buying Yes at $0.40 is the same as selling No at $0.60 (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4).
What are split and merge?
Split turns $1 into 1 Yes and 1 No. Merge turns 1 Yes and 1 No back into $1. They are tools for advanced users and apps.
Hyperliquid's docs say: "Advanced users may also manually split and merge outcomes to convert between primary and dual balances" (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4). A developer guide written at the May 2026 launch noted that the split and merge actions existed in the protocol but were not yet enabled for users then (>Chainstack developer guide). Check the current docs if you need them.
| Action | You give | You get |
|---|---|---|
| Split | $1 | 1 Yes + 1 No |
| Merge | 1 Yes + 1 No | $1 |
Why would anyone split? A market maker can split $1, then offer Yes and No to buyers on both sides. A beginner does not need either action: buying and selling on the order book does the same thing for you.
How do tokens work in a question?
In a question, every possible result is its own outcome with its own Yes and No, and exactly one outcome settles Yes. Holding No on every outcome is worth something before the end.
Hyperliquid's docs say outcomes in a question trade on separate books but are linked by negate and merge operations, and that holders of No shares across outcomes can redeem quote tokens before settlement (>Hyperliquid docs, HIP-4). The logic: in a match with three outcomes, exactly one Yes wins, so exactly two No tokens pay. A set of No on all three is worth $2 for sure.
What happens to the tokens at settlement?
The winning token turns into 1 USDC and the losing token turns into 0, automatically. You do not claim anything.
The developer guide notes there is no claim, redeem or settle call to make (>Chainstack developer guide). Outcome markets settled in USDH, Hyperliquid's native stablecoin, at launch, and now settle in USDC (>QuickNode guide).
How do developers see these tokens?
Each outcome has a number, and each side is 0 for Yes or 1 for No. Apps compute names from those two numbers.
The developer guide gives the formula: encoding equals 10 times the outcome number plus the side. For outcome 1, Yes is 10 and No is 11. The order book uses the name #10, and account balances show +10 (>Chainstack developer guide). You will never need this to trade, but it explains the odd names you may see in an explorer.
What are the risks with outcome tokens?
A token you hold can go to $0. You can lose the amount you put in. And a token is only as good as the market's rules.
- All or nothing. At settlement there is no partial payout on a simple market.
- Thin books. Selling a token before the end depends on someone wanting it.
- Wrong token. Holding Yes on the wrong outcome of a question pays nothing.
- Rules. How the result is decided is set by the market, so read it.
Does CopyHype show outcome tokens?
No. CopyHype shows a chance and a payout, not token names.
You see Yes at 40% and "pays ×2.5", then "If Yes wins" with about $25 on a $10 bet, and one button you hold to bet, with practice money first. The tokens still exist underneath; you just do not have to think about them. How it works: Predictions in CopyHype.
Frequently asked questions
Is a Yes token a crypto coin?
It is a token in your Hyperliquid balance that is worth $1 or $0 at the end. It is not a coin you can expect to keep its value after the market settles.
Why do Yes and No prices add up to $1?
Because exactly one of them pays $1. Holding both is the same as holding $1, so traders keep the two prices close to $1 combined.
Do I need to split or merge to trade?
No. Buying and selling on the order book is enough. Split and merge are for advanced users and market makers.
What happens to a losing token?
It settles at 0. It is worth nothing after settlement.
Where do these facts come from?
From Hyperliquid's HIP-4 docs and a developer guide written at the May 2026 launch. Sources:
- >Hyperliquid docs: HIP-4 outcome markets
- >Chainstack developer guide: HIP-4 outcome markets trading
- >QuickNode guide: trade HIP-4 prediction markets
Ana and Ben are an example. Definitions of outcome, question and Yes and No tokens are in the glossary.
Keep reading
- Hyperliquid prediction markets (HIP-4 outcomes), explained simplyHow Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcome markets work: Yes and No prices as chances, a worked $10 example, USDC settlement, fees and what is listed.
- How to trade Hyperliquid outcomes, step by stepA beginner's walkthrough of Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcome markets: what you need, reading the rules, Yes or No, order types, selling early, settlement.
- Prediction market odds explained: price is probability, and the payout mathWhy a prediction market price is a probability, how to turn it into a payout, decimal and American odds, the overround and expected value.